KEEP AN EYE ON BANKING SUGAR STOCKS
TAKE ADVANTAGE IN RNRL , IFCI IN THIS WEEK FOR QUICK GAINS '
ALSO TRY SUZLON FOR TRADING
AND SPECIFIC SCRIP BHAGAREEDHA CHEMICALS CMP : 56 TARGET : 100
SATAVAHANA ISPAT CMP : 55 TARGET : 85
GOLDSTONE TECHNOLOGIES CMP : 114
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IF GOVERNEMNT WILL OVER TAKE THE POLITICAL UNCERTAINITY AND WIN THE VOTING THEN NIFTY WILL GO TO 4200
AND THEN 4600 ALSO , HUGE CHANCES OF 4600 IN COMING DAYS
SENSEX MAY GO TO 13800 AND THEN 14400 AND 15000 , CHANCES ON ABOVE NEWS
ONE CAN TRY VALUE BUYING IN BANKING STOCKS
BUY KOTAK BANK ICICI BANK AXIS BANK IN EVERY DECLINES
SHORT TERM PLAYERS SELL ON EVERY RALLIES
TAKE IDFC BHARTI REL CAPITAL IN F & O BY OBSERVING THE TREND
FOR OPTION PLAYERS STRADDLE STRATEGY BUY 4100 CALL & 4100 PUT
SPECIAL BUY COUNTERS:
VISAKA INDUSTRIES : CMP 58 TARGET 125
VISA STEEL : CMP 45 TARGET 100
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while i was going through past record found some intresting patern between ril and sensex and this is not once or twice but many times happened so dont be too much bearish at this stage one positive news can give strong technical bounce
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Since we are falling and falling and falling .. seems like there is no end of this fall. every one has only one question .. where is the low? when we will stop?
rising crude price, rising inflation, poor liquidity, tumble between govt and allies making us nervous every day.
Now repo rate and crr is been hiked. most of the stocks are near all time low.
well.. we have two supports now.. if we break 4100, then 4020, and then 3770-6720, we hope this numbers may save the market, we are much lower than 400 dma. but hope , it will bounce up.
Tomorrow is expiry, hope market will rise a bit for short covering after initial gap down due to repo and crr hike.
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NIFTY RESISTANCE : 4580 4700
NIFTY SUPPORT : 4430 4340
SENSEX SUPPORT : 14800 14300
SENSEX RESISTANCE: 15360 15800
F & PICKS:
R POWER : CMP 185 TARGET 205
DR REDDY : CMP 725 TARGET 800
ZEE ENT : CMP 220 TARGET
BALLARPUR INDUSTRIES : CMP 36 TARGET 45
EQUITY PICKS: -
SHREE RAM URBAN INFRA : CMP 135 TARGET 200 BSE CODE : 503205 ZSHREERAM code in PIB
IFGL REFRACTORIES : CMP 57 TARGET 90
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Really a class analogy.. An Old Story:The Ant works hard in the withering heat all summer building its house and
laying up supplies for the winter..The Grasshopper thinks the Ant is a fool and laughs & dances & plays the
summer away.Come winter, the Ant is warm and well fed. The Grasshopper has no food or
shelter so he dies out in the cold.
Indian Version:
The Ant works hard in the withering heat all summer building its house and
laying up supplies for the winter.The Grasshopper thinks the Ant's a fool and laughs & dances & plays the
summer away.Come winter, the shivering Grasshopper calls a press conference and
demands to know why the Ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed
while others are cold and starving..
NDTV, BBC, CNN show up to provide pictures of the shivering Grasshopper
next to a video of the Ant in his comfortable home with a table filled
with food.The World is stunned by the sharp contrast. How can this be that this poor
Grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?Arundhati Roy stages a demonstration in front of the Ant's house.Medha Patkar goes on a fast along with other Grasshoppers demanding that
Grasshoppers be relocated to warmer climates during winter . Mayawati states this as `injustice' done on Minorities. Amnesty International and Koffi Annan criticize the Indian Government for
not upholding the fundamental rights of the Grasshopper.The Internet is flooded with online petitions seeking support to the
Grasshopper (many promising Heaven and Everlasting Peace for prompt
support as against the wrath of God for non-compliance) .Opposition MPs stage a walkout. Left parties call for 'Bengal Bandh' in
West Bengal and Kerala demanding a Judicial Enquiry.
CPM in Kerala immediately passes a law preventing Ants from working hard
in the heat so as to bring about equality of poverty among Ants and
Grasshoppers.Lalu Prasad allocates one free coach to Grasshoppers on all Indian Railway
Trains, aptly named as the 'Grasshopper Rath'.Finally, the Judicial Committee drafts the ' Prevention of Terrorism
Against Grasshoppers Act' [POTAGA], with effect from the beginning of the
winter.Arjun Singh makes 'Special Reservation ' for Grasshoppers in Educational
Institutions & in Government Services.
The Ant is fined for failing to comply with POTAGA and having nothing left
to pay his retroactive taxes,it's home is confiscated by the Government
and handed over to the Grasshopper in a ceremony covered by NDTV. Arundhati Roy calls it ' A Triumph of Justice'.
Lalu calls it 'Socialistic Justice '.
CPM calls it the ' Revolutionary Resurgence of the Downtrodden '
Koffi Annan invites the Grasshopper to address the UN General Assembly.
Many years later... The Ant has since migrated to the US and set up a multi-billion dollar
company in Silicon Valley,
100s of Grasshoppers still die of starvation despite reservation somewhere
in India,
.
..AND
As a result of loosing lot of hard working Ants and feeding the
grasshoppers,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
India is still a developing country…!!!
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same patern like nifty and ntpc seen in past with falling price and rising macd i guess it should move 100 to 200 rupee up from here.... cheers
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RESERVE BANK CREDIT POLICY ON 29TH & US FEDERAL MEET ON INTEREST RATES WILL GIVE WAY TO DIRECTION OF MARKETS
IF REPO RATE IS INCREASED , THEN BREAK FOR RALLY
IF NOT INCREASED THEN SENSEX MAY GO UP TO 18000
CRUDE OIL & INFLATION FEARING THE MARKET SENTIMENTS
SENSEX TRADING RANGE : 16580 - 17800
NIFTY TRADING RANGE : 4940 - 5360
SENSEX RESISTANCE LEVELS : 17540 , 17800
NIFTY RESISTANCE LEVELS : 5220 , 5360
F & O PICKS ; -
VIJAYA BANK CMP 54 TARGET 75
RNRL CMP 123 TARGET 150
ALSO KEEP WATCH IN TVS MOTORS, CIPLA CHAMBAL FERTILISERS JET AIRWAYS IN MOMENTUM STOCKS
INVESTMENT PICKS :
JUBILANT ORGANSYS: 370 TARGET 500
SARA SANITARY : 125 TARGET :200
AVANTELQ : 65 TARGET :150
Read more!
Befor annalyst comes on tv and sing a song of india story and its resource or growth let us say it forst...it is looking extrimly bullish if 16500 is not broken now even if market corects in coming days and return from 16500 it will be indicating that market is heading towards 22500 range in next six to eight month there will be problem only if we break and close below 16500 range for more then two three days otherwise as per our old post secular bull run till 2010 is intact enjoy
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Friends there is hardly any down side left so risk is very low where as reward looks high these kind of circuit stocks can get double in no time....as ifci ran from 8 to 80 this may not 90 paise to 9 rupee but 5 rupee can be seen in six months time if june results come positive with foreign tie up news.....enjoy
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hope u all remember my last post about nifty...same patern seen here
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The Dow broke through resistance at 12800 on strong volume. A retracement that respects the new support level would add strength to the signal. Reversal below Friday's low, on the other hand, would warn of a bull trap and another test of support at 12000/11750.
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GLOBAL MARKETS FIRM ,INFLATION REACHED 7%
GOOD & ENCOURAGING RESULTS FROM WIPRO & INFOSYS
SENSEX MAJOR RESISTANCE 16800
NIFTY MAJOR RESISTANCE 5060
SENSEX TRADING RANGE : 15600 -17200
NIFTY SUPPORT LEVELS : 4800 - 5280
GOOD WEEKEND RALLY IN US MARKETS BCOZ OF GOOD & ENCOURAGING RESULTS FROM GOOGLE, CITY GROUP , CATER PILLER
NEXT WEEK DERIVATIVE SETTLEMENT, BE CAUTIOUS
LINE CLEARED FOR RELIANCE INFRATEL IPO , KEEP WATCH ON RCOM,ADLBAS
AND KEEP WATCH ON ALL ADAG GROUP COMPANIES , THEY CAN RALLY FROM THIS LEVEL
OTHER COUNTERS IN F & O CAN BE ACTIVE ARE BELOW :
SUZLON, POWERGRID, POWER FINANCE
INVESTMENT PICKS :
HINDUZA FOUNDRY: CMP 174 TARGET : 250
DIAMOND CABLES : CMP 384 TARGET: 500
Read more!
GLOBAL MARKETS LOOKS STONG N STEADY ,INFLATION @7%
BAN ON CEMENT & STEEL BY GOVERNMENT
GOVERNMENT MAY TAKE SOME MORE ACTIONS TO CONTROL INFLATION
MARKET CAN FACE MORE UPS N DOWNS THIS WEEK ALSO
SENSEX TRADING RANGE : 14800 - 15900
NIFTY TRADING RANGE : 4300 - 4900
F & O PICKS :
MATRIX LABS : CMP 180 TARGET: 220
IDEA CELLULAR: CMP 99 TARGET: 125
TATA CHEMICALS:CMP 300 TARGET:340
UNITED PHOSPORUS:CMP:278 TARGET:325
EQUITY PICKS: -
JKUMAR INFRA : TARGET 125
MIND TREE : CMP 355 TARGET : 450
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Here's a very interesting anecdote that describes how an "asset bubble"
builds up and what are its consequences.
Read it even if it confuses you a bit...things will be clear as you reach the end....
ANCEDOTE -
Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the
tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollar as there
were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.
1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B
and C each owned 1 dollar.
2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, A and C now each
own 1 dollar while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.
The net asset of the country = 3 dollar.
3) C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country and
land is non produceable asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he
borrowed 1 dollar from A and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the
land from B for 2 dollar.
A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.
B sold his land and got 2 dollar, so his net asset is 2 dollar.
C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollar but with his 1 dollar debt to A,
his net asset is 1 dollar.
The net asset of the country = 4 dollar.
4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted
selling it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollar
from B and and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollar. The payment is by
2 dollar cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to
C.
As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollar. But since
he owed B 2 dollar, his net asset is 1 dollar.
B loaned 2 dollar to A. So his net asset is 2 dollar.
C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollar.
The net asset of the country = 5 dollar. A bubble is building up.
(5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the
land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollar. The payment is by borrowing
2 dollar from C and cancellation of his 2 dollar loan to A.
As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net
asset is 2 dollar.
B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollar but since he has a debt of 2
dollar with C, his net Asset is 2 dollar.
C loaned 2 dollar to B, so his net asset is 2 dollar.
The net asset of the country = 6 dollar. Even though, the country has only
one piece of land and 2 Dollar in circulation.
(6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.
(7) One day an evil wind blowed. An evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey,
what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There is
only 2 dollar in circulation, I think after all the land that B owns is
worth at most 1 dollar only."
A also thought the same.
(8) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore. In the end, A owns the 2 dollar
coins, his net asset is 2 dollar. B owed C 2 dollar and the land he owned
which he thought worth 4 dollar is now 1 dollar. His net asset become -1
dollar.
C has a loan of 2 dollar to B. But it is a bad debt. Although his net asset
is still 2 dollar, his Heart is palpitating.
The net asset of the country = 3 dollar again.
Who has stolen the 3 dollar from the country ?
Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land worth 4 dollar.
Actually, right before the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6
dollar in paper. his net asset is still 2 dollar, his heart is palpitating.
The net asset of the country = 3 dollar again.
(9) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2
dollar bad debt to B but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1
dollar now.
A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollar. B is bankrupt, his net asset
is 0 dollar. ( B lost everything ) C got no choice but end up with a land
worth only 1 dollar (C lost one dollar) The net asset of the country = 3
dollar.
************ ****End of the story******* ********* ********* **
There is however a redistribution of wealth.
A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.
A few points worth noting -
(1) When a bubble is building up, the debt of individual in a country to one
another is also building up.
(2) This story of the island is a close system whereby there is no other
country and hence no foreign debt. The worth of the asset can only be
calculated using the island's own currency. Hence, there is no net loss.
(3) An overdamped system is assumed when the bubble burst, meaning the
land's value did not go down to below 1 dollar.
(4) When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows
having the land or extending loan to others are the loser. The asset could
shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.
(5) If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar or another piece
of land but refrain to take part in the game. At the end of the day, he will
neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land go up
and down like a see saw.
(6) When the bubble was in the growing phase, everybody made money.
(7) If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is
worthwhile to borrow money (like A ) and take part in the game. But you must
know when you should change everything back to cash.
(8) Instead of land, the above applies to stocks as well.
(9) The actual worth of land or stocks depend largely on psychology.
Read more!
America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling The Nation Out From Under Us. Here's A Way To Fix The Problem--And We Need To Do It Now.
By Warren E. Buffett Carol J. Loomis
November 10, 2003
(FORTUNE Magazine) – I'm about to deliver a warning regarding the U.S. trade deficit and also suggest a remedy for the problem. But first I need to mention two reasons you might want to be skeptical about what I say. To begin, my forecasting record with respect to macroeconomics is far from inspiring. For example, over the past two decades I was excessively fearful of inflation. More to the point at hand, I started way back in 1987 to publicly worry about our mounting trade deficits--and, as you know, we've not only survived but also thrived. So on the trade front, score at least one "wolf" for me. Nevertheless, I am crying wolf again and this time backing it with Berkshire Hathaway's money. Through the spring of 2002, I had lived nearly 72 years without purchasing a foreign currency. Since then Berkshire has made significant investments in--and today holds--several currencies. I won't give you particulars; in fact, it is largely irrelevant which currencies they are. What does matter is the underlying point: To hold other currencies is to believe that the dollar will decline.
Both as an American and as an investor, I actually hope these commitments prove to be a mistake. Any profits Berkshire might make from currency trading would pale against the losses the company and our shareholders, in other aspects of their lives, would incur from a plunging dollar.
But as head of Berkshire Hathaway, I am in charge of investing its money in ways that make sense. And my reason for finally putting my money where my mouth has been so long is that our trade deficit has greatly worsened, to the point that our country's "net worth," so to speak, is now being transferred abroad at an alarming rate.
A perpetuation of this transfer will lead to major trouble. To understand why, take a wildly fanciful trip with me to two isolated, side-by-side islands of equal size, Squanderville and Thriftville. Land is the only capital asset on these islands, and their communities are primitive, needing only food and producing only food. Working eight hours a day, in fact, each inhabitant can produce enough food to sustain himself or herself. And for a long time that's how things go along. On each island everybody works the prescribed eight hours a day, which means that each society is self-sufficient.
Eventually, though, the industrious citizens of Thriftville decide to do some serious saving and investing, and they start to work 16 hours a day. In this mode they continue to live off the food they produce in eight hours of work but begin exporting an equal amount to their one and only trading outlet, Squanderville.
The citizens of Squanderville are ecstatic about this turn of events, since they can now live their lives free from toil but eat as well as ever. Oh, yes, there's a quid pro quo--but to the Squanders, it seems harmless: All that the Thrifts want in exchange for their food is Squanderbonds (which are denominated, naturally, in Squanderbucks) .
Over time Thriftville accumulates an enormous amount of these bonds, which at their core represent claim checks on the future output of Squanderville. A few pundits in Squanderville smell trouble coming. They foresee that for the Squanders both to eat and to pay off--or simply service--the debt they're piling up will eventually require them to work more than eight hours a day. But the residents of Squanderville are in no mood to listen to such doomsaying.
Meanwhile, the citizens of Thriftville begin to get nervous. Just how good, they ask, are the IOUs of a shiftless island? So the Thrifts change strategy: Though they continue to hold some bonds, they sell most of them to Squanderville residents for Squanderbucks and use the proceeds to buy Squanderville land. And eventually the Thrifts own all of Squanderville.
At that point, the Squanders are forced to deal with an ugly equation: They must now not only return to working eight hours a day in order to eat--they have nothing left to trade--but must also work additional hours to service their debt and pay Thriftville rent on the land so imprudently sold. In effect, Squanderville has been colonized by purchase rather than conquest.
It can be argued, of course, that the present value of the future production that Squanderville must forever ship to Thriftville only equates to the production Thriftville initially gave up and that therefore both have received a fair deal. But since one generation of Squanders gets the free ride and future generations pay in perpetuity for it, there are--in economist talk--some pretty dramatic "intergenerational inequities."
Let's think of it in terms of a family: Imagine that I, Warren Buffett, can get the suppliers of all that I consume in my lifetime to take Buffett family IOUs that are payable, in goods and services and with interest added, by my descendants. This scenario may be viewed as effecting an even trade between the Buffett family unit and its creditors. But the generations of Buffetts following me are not likely to applaud the deal (and, heaven forbid, may even attempt to welsh on it).
Think again about those islands: Sooner or later the Squanderville government, facing ever greater payments to service debt, would decide to embrace highly inflationary policies--that is, issue more Squanderbucks to dilute the value of each. After all, the government would reason, those irritating Squanderbonds are simply claims on specific numbers of Squanderbucks, not on bucks of specific value. In short, making Squanderbucks less valuable would ease the island's fiscal pain.
That prospect is why I, were I a resident of Thriftville, would opt for direct ownership of Squanderville land rather than bonds of the island's government. Most governments find it much harder morally to seize foreign-owned property than they do to dilute the purchasing power of claim checks foreigners hold. Theft by stealth is preferred to theft by force.
So what does all this island hopping have to do with the U.S.? Simply put, after World War II and up until the early 1970s we operated in the industrious Thriftville style, regularly selling more abroad than we purchased. We concurrently invested our surplus abroad, with the result that our net investment-- that is, our holdings of foreign assets less foreign holdings of U.S. assets--increased (under methodology, since revised, that the government was then using) from $37 billion in 1950 to $68 billion in 1970. In those days, to sum up, our country's "net worth," viewed in totality, consisted of all the wealth within our borders plus a modest portion of the wealth in the rest of the world.
Additionally, because the U.S. was in a net ownership position with respect to the rest of the world, we realized net investment income that, piled on top of our trade surplus, became a second source of investable funds. Our fiscal situation was thus similar to that of an individual who was both saving some of his salary and reinvesting the dividends from his existing nest egg.
In the late 1970s the trade situation reversed, producing deficits that initially ran about 1% of GDP. That was hardly serious, particularly because net investment income remained positive. Indeed, with the power of compound interest working for us, our net ownership balance hit its high in 1980 at $360 billion.
Since then, however, it's been all downhill, with the pace of decline rapidly accelerating in the past five years. Our annual trade deficit now exceeds 4% of GDP. Equally ominous, the rest of the world owns a staggering $2.5 trillion more of the U.S. than we own of other countries. Some of this $2.5 trillion is invested in claim checks--U.S. bonds, both governmental and private--and some in such assets as property and equity securities.
In effect, our country has been behaving like an extraordinarily rich family that possesses an immense farm. In order to consume 4% more than we produce--that' s the trade deficit--we have, day by day, been both selling pieces of the farm and increasing the mortgage on what we still own.
To put the $2.5 trillion of net foreign ownership in perspective, contrast it with the $12 trillion value of publicly owned U.S. stocks or the equal amount of U.S. residential real estate or what I would estimate as a grand total of $50 trillion in national wealth. Those comparisons show that what's already been transferred abroad is meaningful-- in the area, for example, of 5% of our national wealth.
More important, however, is that foreign ownership of our assets will grow at about $500 billion per year at the present trade-deficit level, which means that the deficit will be adding about one percentage point annually to foreigners' net ownership of our national wealth. As that ownership grows, so will the annual net investment income flowing out of this country. That will leave us paying ever-increasing dividends and interest to the world rather than being a net receiver of them, as in the past. We have entered the world of negative compounding- -goodbye pleasure, hello pain.
We were taught in Economics 101 that countries could not for long sustain large, ever-growing trade deficits. At a point, so it was claimed, the spree of the consumption- happy nation would be braked by currency-rate adjustments and by the unwillingness of creditor countries to accept an endless flow of IOUs from the big spenders. And that's the way it has indeed worked for the rest of the world, as we can see by the abrupt shutoffs of credit that many profligate nations have suffered in recent decades.
The U.S., however, enjoys special status. In effect, we can behave today as we wish because our past financial behavior was so exemplary--and because we are so rich. Neither our capacity nor our intention to pay is questioned, and we continue to have a mountain of desirable assets to trade for consumables. In other words, our national credit card allows us to charge truly breathtaking amounts. But that card's credit line is not limitless.
The time to halt this trading of assets for consumables is now, and I have a plan to suggest for getting it done. My remedy may sound gimmicky, and in truth it is a tariff called by another name. But this is a tariff that retains most free-market virtues, neither protecting specific industries nor punishing specific countries nor encouraging trade wars. This plan would increase our exports and might well lead to increased overall world trade. And it would balance our books without there being a significant decline in the value of the dollar, which I believe is otherwise almost certain to occur.
We would achieve this balance by issuing what I will call Import Certificates (ICs) to all U.S. exporters in an amount equal to the dollar value of their exports. Each exporter would, in turn, sell the ICs to parties--either exporters abroad or importers here--wanting to get goods into the U.S. To import $1 million of goods, for example, an importer would need ICs that were the byproduct of $1 million of exports. The inevitable result: trade balance.
Because our exports total about $80 billion a month, ICs would be issued in huge, equivalent quantities-- that is, 80 billion certificates a month--and would surely trade in an exceptionally liquid market. Competition would then determine who among those parties wanting to sell to us would buy the certificates and how much they would pay. (I visualize that the certificates would be issued with a short life, possibly of six months, so that speculators would be discouraged from accumulating them.)
For illustrative purposes, let's postulate that each IC would sell for 10 cents--that is, 10 cents per dollar of exports behind them. Other things being equal, this amount would mean a U.S. producer could realize 10% more by selling his goods in the export market than by selling them domestically, with the extra 10% coming from his sales of ICs.
In my opinion, many exporters would view this as a reduction in cost, one that would let them cut the prices of their products in international markets. Commodity-type products would particularly encourage this kind of behavior. If aluminum, for example, was selling for 66 cents per pound domestically and ICs were worth 10%, domestic aluminum producers could sell for about 60 cents per pound (plus transportation costs) in foreign markets and still earn normal margins. In this scenario, the output of the U.S. would become significantly more competitive and exports would expand. Along the way, the number of jobs would grow.
Foreigners selling to us, of course, would face tougher economics. But that's a problem they're up against no matter what trade "solution" is adopted--and make no mistake, a solution must come. (As Herb Stein said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.") In one way the IC approach would give countries selling to us great flexibility, since the plan does not penalize any specific industry or product. In the end, the free market would determine what would be sold in the U.S. and who would sell it. The ICs would determine only the aggregate dollar volume of what was sold.
To see what would happen to imports, let's look at a car now entering the U.S. at a cost to the importer of $20,000. Under the new plan and the assumption that ICs sell for 10%, the importer's cost would rise to $22,000. If demand for the car was exceptionally strong, the importer might manage to pass all of this on to the American consumer. In the usual case, however, competitive forces would take hold, requiring the foreign manufacturer to absorb some, if not all, of the $2,000 IC cost.
There is no free lunch in the IC plan: It would have certain serious negative consequences for U.S. citizens. Prices of most imported products would increase, and so would the prices of certain competitive products manufactured domestically. The cost of the ICs, either in whole or in part, would therefore typically act as a tax on consumers.
That is a serious drawback. But there would be drawbacks also to the dollar continuing to lose value or to our increasing tariffs on specific products or instituting quotas on them--courses of action that in my opinion offer a smaller chance of success. Above all, the pain of higher prices on goods imported today dims beside the pain we will eventually suffer if we drift along and trade away ever larger portions of our country's net worth.
I believe that ICs would produce, rather promptly, a U.S. trade equilibrium well above present export levels but below present import levels. The certificates would moderately aid all our industries in world competition, even as the free market determined which of them ultimately met the test of "comparative advantage."
This plan would not be copied by nations that are net exporters, because their ICs would be valueless. Would major exporting countries retaliate in other ways? Would this start another Smoot-Hawley tariff war? Hardly. At the time of Smoot-Hawley we ran an unreasonable trade surplus that we wished to maintain. We now run a damaging deficit that the whole world knows we must correct.
For decades the world has struggled with a shifting maze of punitive tariffs, export subsidies, quotas, dollar-locked currencies, and the like. Many of these import-inhibiting and export-encouraging devices have long been employed by major exporting countries trying to amass ever larger surpluses--yet significant trade wars have not erupted. Surely one will not be precipitated by a proposal that simply aims at balancing the books of the world's largest trade debtor. Major exporting countries have behaved quite rationally in the past and they will continue to do so--though, as always, it may be in their interest to attempt to convince us that they will behave otherwise.
The likely outcome of an IC plan is that the exporting nations--after some initial posturing--will turn their ingenuity to encouraging imports from us. Take the position of China, which today sells us about $140 billion of goods and services annually while purchasing only $25 billion. Were ICs to exist, one course for China would be simply to fill the gap by buying 115 billion certificates annually. But it could alternatively reduce its need for ICs by cutting its exports to the U.S. or by increasing its purchases from us. This last choice would probably be the most palatable for China, and we should wish it to be so.
If our exports were to increase and the supply of ICs were therefore to be enlarged, their market price would be driven down. Indeed, if our exports expanded sufficiently, ICs would be rendered valueless and the entire plan made moot. Presented with the power to make this happen, important exporting countries might quickly eliminate the mechanisms they now use to inhibit exports from us.
Were we to install an IC plan, we might opt for some transition years in which we deliberately ran a relatively small deficit, a step that would enable the world to adjust as we gradually got where we need to be. Carrying this plan out, our government could either auction "bonus" ICs every month or simply give them, say, to less-developed countries needing to increase their exports. The latter course would deliver a form of foreign aid likely to be particularly effective and appreciated.
I will close by reminding you again that I cried wolf once before. In general, the batting average of doomsayers in the U.S. is terrible. Our country has consistently made fools of those who were skeptical about either our economic potential or our resiliency. Many pessimistic seers simply underestimated the dynamism that has allowed us to overcome problems that once seemed ominous. We still have a truly remarkable country and economy.
But I believe that in the trade deficit we also have a problem that is going to test all of our abilities to find a solution. A gently declining dollar will not provide the answer. True, it would reduce our trade deficit to a degree, but not by enough to halt the outflow of our country's net worth and the resulting growth in our investment-income deficit.
Perhaps there are other solutions that make more sense than mine. However, wishful thinking--and its usual companion, thumb sucking--is not among them. From what I now see, action to halt the rapid outflow of our national wealth is called for, and ICs seem the least painful and most certain way to get the job done. Just keep remembering that this is not a small problem: For example, at the rate at which the rest of the world is now making net investments in the U.S., it could annually buy and sock away nearly 4% of our publicly traded stocks.
In evaluating business options at Berkshire, my partner, Charles Munger, suggests that we pay close attention to his jocular wish: "All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." Framers of our trade policy should heed this caution--and steer clear of Squanderville.
Warren Buffett is chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. FORTUNE editor at large Carol J. Loomis, who is a Berkshire shareholder, worked with him on this article
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Ajay Shah:A crisis or a mere recession? Ajay Shah / New Delhi March 19, 2008 This is not an emerging market-style crisis. While the US economy is beset with serious difficulties, there are equilibriating forces in play, which suggest that this could end up as a recession but not a crisis. The US economy is facing substantial difficulties. Housing prices have dropped. An increasing number of households are defaulting on home loans. Losses on home loan portfolios are affecting financial firms who hold derivatives on home loans. Some financial firms have gone bankrupt, and there is uncertainty about who else might be bankrupt.
With finance in difficulties, the monetary transmission is malfunctioning. Hence, while the US Fed has cut rates sharply, the full impact of these lowered rates on the economy is not going through. Inflationary expectations are worrisome.
This is undoubtedly a difficult situation. But is it a crisis? One estimate of the size of losses on sub-prime home loans is $400 billion. This is roughly 2.85% of US GDP. In India, with roughly Rs 50 lakh crore of GDP, a comparable scenario would involve home loan losses of Rs 1,43,000 crore. If such a shock hit India, one can only imagine how bad things would be. In such difficult times, why is the US economy still rolling with the punches? Why has the US economy not collapsed in a mire of failed firms, finger-pointing by government agencies, morchas in the streets, and JPC inquiries? Understanding how this shock is being absorbed, and the equilibriating forces in play, is important in making a call on whether this is a crisis or a mere recession. In the idealised world of securitisation, a parcel of home loans is converted into securities, which are then sold in the broad market. The ownership of these securities is dispersed amidst
international hedge funds, pension funds, etc. The originator of the home loan is largely immune to the outcome: if a default takes place, the losses are borne by the owners of the securities. Many critics of securitisation have pointed out that this theory has not quite panned out as expected. However, at the same time, there is no doubting the fact that securitisation has given a substantial dispersion of the $400 billion loss. For this reason, the impact of the massive loss on the US financial system is not as large as it might otherwise have been. The second equilibriating channel lies in monetary policy. Unlike many other countries which have experienced crises, the US has well-functioning institutions for conducting monetary policy. The US Fed has cut rates dramatically in response to difficulties in the economy. On March 14, the 90-day treasury rate in the US had dropped to 1.16%.
The impact of lowered interest rates on the economy is not as strong as it used to be, owing to difficulties in finance. However, a certain impact is surely there. Low interest rates are helping strengthen demand, and help attract smart speculators to buy assets at fire sale prices.
Difficulties in finance inflict damage on the economy when they trip up the debt financing of firms. However, US corporations are unusually under-leveraged and cash-rich. Hence, this recession-inducing channel from credit market distress to the real economy is absent. The health of US corporations today is very different from the health of Japanese firms in Japan’s lost decades. Low interest rates are doing their job in one critical respect: the decline of the dollar. Unlike other countries which have experienced crisis, the US has a floating exchange rate and an open capital account. The exchange rate pegging with capital controls, which has brought down so many emerging markets, is absent. When interest rates dropped, the dollar fell — exactly as it should. The weak dollar is bolstering net exports and helping the economy. These effects are large. The Q4-2005 current account deficit was 7% of GDP; this has shrunk to 4.9% of GDP in Q4-2007. In
other words, over these two years, the decline in the dollar contributed roughly 2% of higher demand for goods and services produced in the US. A second remarkable feature of the decline in the dollar is the funding channel for the US through Asian central banks and governments in West Asia. For each $1 trillion of reserves held in USD assets, a 10% decline in the dollar constitutes a transfer of $100 billion to the issuer of liabilities in the US.
Every Asian country should be asking whether this deal makes any sense for them, but in understanding the present situation, it’s useful to note that no other country facing a crisis in the past has had such a good deal, which produces fiscal transfers in the time of need.
Unlike many countries which have experienced crises, monetary policy in the US is manned by brilliant intellectuals like Ben Bernanke and Fred Mishkin. Few people in the world understand the interplay between monetary policy and financial sector difficulties as well as them. The Fed cut rates, but the monetary transmission was not quite working owing to difficulties in finance, so the rate cuts were not doing their job. Hence, the Fed has been innovating with new ways to get back into the game. These innovations include changing rules on collateral, reaching out to financing non-banks, etc. These strategies are on the right track and will help. Some hedge funds and private equity funds have failed. From the viewpoint of public policy, this reiterates the case for having hedge funds and private equity funds as major players, since these failures have no repercussions.
The failure of Carlyle is very different from the failure of financial firms like banks or insurance companies which have assured returns obligations to the general public. It is an excellent risk management strategy for society to have hedge funds where rich people place their money, which can blow up when times go bad inflicting losses on rich people.
In the failure of Bear Stearns, there was no bailout. Senior managers will be sacked, and the shareholders were expropriated. In this fashion, bit by bit, the losses on the housing market are being absorbed by various portfolios. Conditions in the US are undoubtedly difficult. However, it is important to also understand the institutional depth of economic policy making, and the equilibriating responses which are in play. This may well be a recession, but it is not an emerging market-style crisis.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
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The Harshad fix of 1992 repeated in 1994, the tech bust of 2000 that continues till date and much before these two were the drought linked bust-ups of Rajiv Gandhi's tumultous 5 years as PM.
The latest, fuelled by foreign and God knows which source of money is the Indian Real Estate bust. Just think, a 300-500 sq feet shop now sells for roughly Rs 1 crore and over in the Malls of Ludhiana, the same may sell for over Rs 3 to 5 crore in Bombay.
What returns would you need to sustain an investment of such magnitude for so small an office space? What type of business could have margins that would justify investment into Reality this expensive and which are the guys who are forking out money to buy them?
On the flip side, what kind of a Rental Income is this outrageously valued asset earning? About 1 per cent per annum, this type of asset was earning roughly 8 per cent three years ago, 6 per cent two years ago and now virtually nothing.
At the cost of sounding trite I think HDFC chairman Deepak Parekh has got Wool in his head or he is demented. Here is one guy who talks down Real Estate everywhere he goes, but his company keeps funding Real Estate. So either everyone at HDFC is equally lost or this nation has seriously run out of shrinks..anyway.
In 2008 your financial world is going to change... dramatically
For a decade it's been so simple for property investors. All they've had to do is buy property, and then sit back and watch it soar in value.
It's been so easy to make money that people have started treating their houses as a bank and a pension, as well as somewhere to live.
They've taken out loans against their homes on the basis they'll make a big profit in the future. They've bought houses they can't afford on the basis - again - that they'll make a big profit in the future. They've planned their retirement around property on the basis that - you've guessed it - they'll make a big profit in the future.
And every time that someone predicts a property crash, and nothing happens, those same people have become more and more convinced they're doing the right thing.
But they're making the most expensive mistake of their lives.
No bubble lasts forever. That's a FACT. There is a mountain of evidence that the property market is in a sick, sick state. FACT.
A property slump is coming....And, crucially, it's going to start very soon...
2008 Investment death-trap
#1: Buying property
According to the housing bulls, panicky estate agents and other crash deniers, house prices won't slump in 2008 because:
a] the supply of property can't cope with demand and...
b] the economic fundamentals are still strong
We don't agree. It's perfectly possible to have falling house prices even if GDP growth is respectable and employment is strong - as the American property market is proving right now.
And if supply and demand really was the crucial factor, rents would have gone up at the same rate as house prices. They haven't. In fact, house prices are now overvalued compared to rents by at least 50%.
No, the real reason why house prices have boomed is that interest rates have been low and lenders have been excessively lax. And that has allowed people to pay prices they really can't afford.
Now the gravy days are over. Interest rates rose 4 times in 2007 alone. And lenders, spooked by the US subprime disaster and worried about a repeat over here, are turning off the supply of cheap credit.
The result? The housing market is left without the two crutches - low interest rates and easy credit - that were keeping it upright. Right now, it's teetering alarmingly. Eventually it has to collapse. And when it does, it could have a long way to fall...
'The extent of house price over-valuation may be considerably larger in some national markets in Europe than in the
United States,' - IMF Report, Oct 2007
House prices are set to fall. Almost every objective observer says so. But by how much?
Last October the International Monetary Fund warned that homes were overpriced by up to 40%.
That's far more than the overpricing in the US before the current property slump began there. Credit agency Fitch reckons that prices are overvalued by 20%; HSBC by 30% or more. Global banking group ABN-AMRO puts the figure at almost 50%.
Ed Stansfield, of Capital Economics, forecasts an overall decline in prices in 2008 of 3%. Henry Pryor, CEO of property website PrimeMove.com predicts a fall of 15% this year. Economist and MoneyWeek contributor James Ferguson thinks prices will go down by 3-5% in 2008, and by 41% in the longer term.
We're predicting a fall of 20% in real terms over the next 3 years.
So what should you do?
Well, if you already own a house, you're happy there and you're comfortable with your mortgage debt, don't do anything. You can think about selling at the top and investing elsewhere but why not just relax and enjoy your home.
But if you're thinking about getting onto the ladder, or of upsizing, then I'd urge you to think again.
Just look at the figures...
The average price of a detached house in the UK is now £323,000. The average price of all property is now £211,000. If we're right, and property is set to come down by 20%, people who buy the average detached house now could see £64,600 wiped off their assets in the next 3 years.
Plus you'll be paying higher and higher mortgage fees to cover the original cost.
We believe the solution is obvious. If you absolutely must buy a house to live in, then make sure you have a decent deposit and a sensible mortgage. And that means no interest-only mortgages, no 'lie-to-buy' deals, no sharing with friends and definitely no 50 year life sentences.
But if you don't really need to buy, why not rent? You'll save money in the short term. You'll protect yourself from the spectre of negative equity. And you'll be perfectly placed to grab a bargain when house prices come crashing down.
You'll also have more money to invest in alternative, lucrative sectors.
I'll introduce you to MoneyWeek's 3 favourite investments for 2008 later. But first let's move on to the next investment death-trap.. .
2008 Investment death-trap
#2: Buy-to-let
At the start of a raging bull market, buy-to-let seems close to the perfect investment. You buy a property, tenants queue up to pay the mortgage for you and then, when you decide to sell, you bank a massive capital gain.
But when interest rates are rising, rental yields are plunging and house prices are all set for a long downturn, it's a sure-fire way to lose money.
According to the industry hype, buy-to-let landlords rake in 8.5% each year from their tenants. In the real world the gross rental yield is more like 5.5%.
After fees, maintenance and other costs that figure slumps further, to 3.5% (and we haven't even mentioned stamp duty and other buying costs yet).
With interest rates just below 6%, many buy-to-let landlords are already swallowing big losses. And the fallout from the credit crisis means it's going to get worse and worse.
Why the credit crunch is set to wipe out Buy-to-Let
Many people think that mortgages are priced off the Bank of England's base rate. In fact they're normally priced off the rate at which banks can borrow from each other. And since the Northern Rock crisis, when the banks became more reluctant to lend to each other, that rate has shot up.
And this is the crucial bit. Interest rates for buy-to-letters and subprime buyers, which started off higher anyway, have risen particularly quickly. In September 2007, for example, two buy-to-let lenders, Advantage and Edeus, increased their average rates by 0.75% and 0.65%.
In the circumstances it's no surprise that people are starting to jump off the buy-to-let bandwagon. The number of buy-to-let investors selling their property leapt by 27% in the first quarter of 2007.
By December 2007, the proportion of landlords choosing to sell up at the end of the lease had jumped to 6.5%. I'd urge you to steer clear of this dead investment too. It could easily cost you £20,000 in the next 3 years.
And if you already own a second property I'd urge you to sell it soon.
This is why...
'Revealed: the 231 year-old 'secret' of perfect property market timing'
You probably won't have heard of the economist Fred Harrison.
But that's all set to change. After analysing 231 years of business cycle statistics, Harrison has made a discovery that's enabled us, for the first time ever, to predict when housing bubbles start and end.
I'm not going to get into the complex details of it here. But basically Harrison has discovered that the housing market operates on a cycle that's based around land prices.
As an economy grows, so does the demand for land. Because the supply of land is fixed, it becomes more expensive. As prices go up, corporate profits and wages are squeezed. Finally there comes a point when prices simply can't go any higher because people can't afford to pay them any more.
And this is the really interesting bit. In every single case the cycle lasts the same time - 18 years, which consists of 14 years of stable or rising prices and 4 years of recession.
The last UK housing bubble burst in 1990...
Which means that the value of your property investments could start to plummet right now in 2008.
There are a huge number of scary stats and facts that scream that a crisis is on the way. Here are just a few...
The average house is now worth an extraordinary 9 times average earnings. The long-term average is just 3.5!
Last month (January 2008) the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) announced that December 2007 was the worst month for the housing market since the aftermath of Britain’s last recession in 1992.
In 1993 first-time buyers made up 55% of the market. That figure has now slumped to 29%.
According to the Empty Homes Agency, there are 850,000 empty properties in England alone. So the 'supply v demand' argument used by crash deniers might not be such a factor after all?
Individual insolvencies are up 225% in the last 2 years as a nation of debt junkies struggles to cope.
In May 2007 Jon Hunt, founder of Foxtons, sold the UK arm of the business. A smart move from the first big rat to jump ship?
For the first time ever, personal debt is higher than the entire value of the economy. GDP is forecast to hit £1.33 trillion for 2007 - less than the £1.35trn which was outstanding on mortgages, credit cards and personal loans in June. [5]
A study from ABN-AMRO found the UK is even more vulnerable to a housing slump than the US. Sales of existing homes now stand at their lowest rate since records began.
In December 2007 Halifax reported the biggest biggest three-month fall in house prices since 1995.
One million debt-ridden householders are using credit cards to pay their mortgage or rent.
Here's what we think will happen.
Investors will do the maths on buy-to-let and then rush to sell up.
People who've overstretched themselves won't be able to meet the higher mortgage payments. They'll either lose their homes or have to sell up.
People will scramble to sell their property. For sale signs will dominate streets. Repossessions will rocket.
And first-time buyers, the traditional lifeblood of the market, won't be around to take up the slack. Instead they'll wait and see if prices go lower.
But as panic hits the markets, and unprepared investors scramble to save themselves from devastating losses, a wave of profit opportunities will open up.
Traps like this...
2008 Investment death-trap
#3: Commercial Property
The era of easy credit and low interest rates didn't just spark the housing bubble, it also fuelled a spectacular boom in the commercial property sector.
Prices for shops and offices went through the roof. Overall the retail sector achieved a whopping 60.5% gain in the three years to 2007 alone.
But now the boom is officially over. The price of commercial property has been pushed so high that the average yield (the amount of rent paid compared with the purchase price) now stands at just 4.5%, well below the UK base rate.
Investors can now get a better return from buying risk-free government bonds than they can get from investing in the increasingly volatile retail sector.
Commercial property funds, including the market-leading schemes run by New Star and Norwich Union, have all seen their values dive in the last 12 months.
Between December 2007 and January 2008 alone 3 of Britain’s biggest property funds – Friends Provident, Scottish Equitable and ScottishWidows – were forced to shut their doors to withdrawals by small investors after an outbreak of panic selling.
Other fund managers, including Schroders and UBS, have already put a block on withdrawals by institutional clients.
The UK’s commercial property market is now in a worse state than at any time since the early 1990s.And there is little hope of things getting any better soon. In fact they’re going to get a lot worse. Investment bank Morgan Stanley predicts a market fall of 50%.
Economics consultancy Capital Economics predicts that commercial property prices will fall by 18% in real terms by 2010.
In the circumstances our advice is simple. If you're thinking of sinking money into commercial property schemes, please don't.
The idea of swallowing substantial losses in the short-term in the hope of cashing in sometime in the unknown and distant future doesn't make a lot of sense to us.
'Cut your losses and run your profits' is the general advice given to investors in shares. We see no reason why you shouldn't do exactly the same for asset classes, particularly commercial property.
If you've already sunk money into a 'lame duck' retail scheme our advice is to get it out if you can - even if there are exit charges to pay.
And don't get back into commercial property till there are clear signs that the market is bottoming out.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
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mild pull back on friday with low volume was not good sign lets hope for best
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SENTIMENT WEAK
GLOBAL MARKETS FALLING DUE TO CREDITS FEAR
SENSEX TRADING RANGE : 15400 - 16800
NIFTY TRADING RANGE : 4400 - 5280
SENSEX RESISTANCE LEVELS : 16300 - 16580
NIFTY RESISTANCE LEVELS : 4960 - 5140
EQUITY PICKS :
SUZLON ENERGY : CMP 245 TARGET 300
RCOM : CMP 545 TARGET 600
CORDS CABLES : CMP 87 TARGET 125
HIND DORR OLIVER CMP 111 TARGET 150
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Click on the pic to read about techanicals of this script apart from this what info i have is recently Merrill Lynch bought 7.72% stake with this total fii holding gone near tto 39% and 15% held by promotors....aproxcimatly 20
% held by HNI and instituts so hardly anything left in market..do ur home work and take ur call
Discloser:- i'm holding this script from 200 levels
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GLOBAL MARKETS LOOKING WEAK
TREND DECIDING WEEK :- F & O SETTLEMENT ON 28 TH AND UNION BUDGET ON 29TH
MAJOR SUPPORT FOR THE SENSEX IS 16800
MAJOR SUPPORT FOR THE NIFTY IS 5000
IF ANY CLOSE BELOW 5000 ,. THEN WE CAN SEE THE LOW OF JANUARY ONCE AGAIN
F& O PICKS :
HOTEL LEELA: CMP 50 TARGET 70
CIPLA : CMP 194 TARGET 240
BEML : CMP 1124 TARGET 1300
EQUITY PICKS :
CUBEX TUBINGS: CMP 68 TARGET 125
GOKALDAS EXPORTS: CMP 235 TARGET 350
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EXPECTING PRE BUDGET RALLY , SENSEX MAY TOUCH 19000 AND NIFTY MAY TOUCH 5800
RELIANCE NATURAL RESOUCES FUND COLLECTED 5660 CRORES , GOOD RESPONCE FOR MUTUAL FUNDS NFO
SENSEX RESISTANCE LEVELS : 18400 18800
NIFTY RESISTANCE LEVELS : 5480 5640
F & O PICKS : -
IFCI CMP 65 TARGET 85
GAIL CMP 428 TARGET 500
INVESTMENT PICKS: -
BOSCH CHASY CMP 544 TARGET 800(FORMERLY KNOWN AS KALYANI BREAKS){KALYANBRAK IN PIB}
SHLOKA INFOTECHCMP 23 TARGET 75 (BSE CODE :511607) { SHOLKA IN PIB}
WHIRLPOOL CMP 52 TARGET 90 ( KELVINATOR)
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we once bought at 27 and booked 33 range further detail about this company u can get it from arcive section....on feb15 block deal shows asian investment have bought stake from fedaral mogul same can be crosschecked on nse website we strongly recomment to buy for investment with target of 30+ in short to medium term no stop loss require enjoy
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chart patern says end of down trend or trend reversal lets see how it moves now
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SENSEX SUPP0RT LEVELS 17100 16580
NIFTY SUPPORT LEVELS 5000 4740
CAN TEST LOWER LEVELS OF JANUARY AGAIN IN THIS WEEK
INFOSYS NOT LOOSEN TOO MUCH WHEN COMPARED TO INDEX , FUND BUYING GOING ON IN THIS COUNTER
ALSO MANY TECHNOLOGY STOCKS ARE ATTRACTIVE @ THESE LEVELS
F & O PICKS :
RANBAXY 382 450
HIND UNI LEVER 212 250
IF RELIANCE POWER WILL GO DOWN TO BELOW OFFER PRICE THEN VERY BIG DAMAGE FOR SETIMENT
EQUITY PICKS
M&M FINANCIAL SERVICE 310 500
DREDGINS CORPORATION 702 1000
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FED CUT THE RATES AS EXPECTED, AND GOOD CLOSING FOR THE DERIVATIVES
SENSEX TRADING BAND : 17580 - 18860
NIFTY TRADING BAND : 5460 - 5640
EXPECTING RE RATING FOR TECH STOCKS BCOZ OF MICROSOFT BIDDING TO YAHOO
F & O PICKS : -
CMP TARGET
BHARTI AIRTEL : 910 1050
CHAMBAL FERTIL : 50 70
HINDOIL EXPLORA: 100 130
EQUITY PICKS :-
CRANES SOFTWARE: 140 220
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Mr Ketan modi from ahmedabad is of view that nifty will come down to 5308-5280 level in noon time so one can try short at higher level for intraday gains make sure that u use stoploss acording to ur entry and close the position same day itself
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U CAN MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE TO THE INDIAN ECONOMY BY FOLLOWING FEW SIMPLE STEPS.
SAVE INDIA !!!
Our Economy is in your hands.
Do you know this, INDIAN economy can be in a crisis –
INDIA would be facing a severe socio-economic problem.
Many INDIAN industries are closing down.
More than 30000 crore rupees of foreign exchange are being siphoned out of our country on products such as cosmetics, snacks, tea, beverages... etc which are grown, produced and consumed here .
A cold drink that costs only 70/80 paisa to produce is sold for NINE rupees
and a major chunk of profits from these are sent abroad. This is a serious drain on INDIAN economy.
Did you know that " COCA COLA " and " SPRITE " belong to the same multinational company, "COCA COLA " ?
On one hand coke advertisements say that ' JO CHAHO HOJAYE, COCACOLA ENJOY'
(i.e. . whatever the hell, let it happen, you drink coke) ; and on the other hand,
Sprite says that 'BHUJAO ONLY PYAS, BAKI ALL BAKWAS'
(i.e. drinks can just quench thirst all other claims are false).
What can you do ?
You can consider some of the better alternatives to aerated drinks.
For that matter PEPSI is also the same
You can drink LEMON JUICE, FRESH FRUIT JUICES, CHILLED LASSI (SWEET OR SOUR), BUTTER MILK, COCONUT WATER, JALJEERA, ENERJEE, MASALA MILK........ ..
Everyone deserves a healthy drink, including you!
Over and above all this, economic sanctions have been imposed on us. We have nothing against
Multinational companies, but to protect us! and your own interests we request everybody to use INDIAN products.
What you can do about it ?
1. Buy only products manufactured by WHOLLY INDIAN COMPANIES.
2. ENROLL as many people as possible for this cause.
Each individual should become a leader for this awareness.
This is the only way to save our country from severe economic crisis.
You don't need to give-up your lifestyle. You just need to choose an alternate product.
All categories of products are available from WHOLLY owned INDIAN COMPANIES.
LIST OF PRODUCTS
1. BATHING SOAP:
USE - CINTHOL & OTHER GODREJ BRANDS, SANTOOR, WIPRO SHIKAKAI, MYSORE SANDAL, MARGO, NEEM, EVITA, MEDIMIX, GANGA , NIRMA BATH & CHANDRIKA .
INSTEAD OF - LUX, LIFEBOY, REXONA, LIRIL, DOVE, PEARS, HAMAM, LESANCY, CAMAY, PALMOLIVE
2. TOOTH PASTE:
USE - NEEM, BABOOL, PROMISE, VICO VAJRADANTI, PRUDENT, DABUR PRODUCTS, MESWAK.
INSTEAD OF - COLGATE, CLOSE UP, PEPSODENT, CIBACA, FORHANS, MENTADENT .
3. TOOTH BRUSH:
USE - PRUDENT, AJANTA , PROMISE..
INSTEAD OF - COLGATE, CLOSE UP, PEPSODENT, FORHANS. , ORAL-B
4. SHAVING CREAM:
USE - GODREJ, EMANI, VICCO
INSTEAD OF - PALMOLIVE, OL! D SPIICE, GILLETE.
5. BLADE:
USE - SUPERMAX, TOPAZ, LAZER, ASHOKA.
INSTEAD OF - SEVEN-O -CLOCK, 365, GILLETTE.
6. TALCUM POWDER:
USE - SANTOOR, GOKUL, CINTHOL, WIPRO BABY POWDER, BOROPLUS
INSTEAD OF - PONDS, OLD SPICE, JOHNSON BABY POWDER, SHOWER TO SHOWER.
7. MILK POWDER:
USE - INDIANA , AMUL, AMULYA .
INSTEAD OF - ANIKSPRAY, MILKANA, EVERYDAY MILK,MILKMAID.
8. SHAMPOO:
USE - LAKME, NIRMA, VELVET
INSTEAD OF - HALO, ALL CLEAR, NYLE, SUNSILK.,HEAD AND SHOULDERS, PANTENE
9. MOBILE CONNECTIONS
USE - BSNL, AIRTEL
INSTEAD OF - HUTCH.
And above all, CLOTHES - STOP BUYING –
ALAN PAINE, PETER ENGLAND, ARROW,LOUIS PHILLIPE, LEE, REEBOK,NIKE, VAN HUESEN,CALVIN KLIEN, RAID AND TAYLOR .
Do you know that the cotton is produced in the INDIAN villages, threads are produced in the INDIAN towns,
dresses are stitched in INDIAN cities and clothes are purchased by INDIAN customers?
But it is BRANDED as MANUFACTURED BY A MULTINATIONAL COMPANY for which we
LOSE PRECIOUS FOREIGN EXCHANGE.
THE POINT TO NOTE: THE MONEY IS GOING TO SOME DEVELOPED COUNTRIES . It is TRUE.
PLEASE go to the remote areas of cities AND SEE FOR YOURSELF THE TRUTH .
Thousands of poor innocent INDIANS are working as tailors for stitching the
WORLD'S POPULAR READYMADE CLOTHES( ALAN PAINE, PETER ENGLAND ETC.....) ,. BUT THEY ARE PAID A POOR AMOUNT.
THIS IS HAPPENING BECUSE OF OUR IGNORANCE. INDIA IS ONE OF THE MAJOR TEXTILE EXPORTER IN THE WORLD
OUR TAILORS ARE FAMOUS EVEN IN COUNTRIES LIKE US AND UK .
THEN WHY SHOULD WE BLINDLY GIVE IN TO THE ATTRACTION OF FOREIGN BRANDS?
PLEASE THINK ABOUT IT.
Every INDIAN product you buy makes a big difference. It saves INDIA .
Let us take a firm decision today.
BUY INDIAN TO BE INDIAN we are not against of foreign products.
WE ARE NOT ANTI-MULTINATIONAL.
WE ARE TRYING TO SAVE OUR NATION.
EVERY DAY IS A STRUGGLE FOR A REAL FREEDOM.
WE ACHIEVED OUR INDEPENDENCE AFTER LOSING MANY LIVES.
THEY DIED PAINFULLY TO ENSURE THAT WE LIVE PEACEFULLY . THE CURRENT TREND IS VERY THREATENING.
MULTINATIONALS CALL IT GLOBALISATION OF INDIAN ECONOMY. FOR INDIANS LIKE YOU AND ME IT IS RECOLONISATION OF INDIA .
THE COLONIST'S LEFT INDIA THEN. BUT THIS TIME THEY WILL MAKE SURE THEY DON'T MAKE ANY MISTAKES.
WHO WOULD LIKE TO LET A" GOOSE THAT LAYS GOLDEN EGGS " SLIP AWAY.
PLEASE REMEMBER : POLITICAL FREEDOM IS USELESS WITHOUT ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE .
RUSSIA , S.KOREA , MEXICO ........THE LIST IS VERY LONG!!
LET US LEARN FROM THEIR EXPERIENCE AND FROM OUR HISTORY.
LET US DO THE DUTY OF EVERY TRUE INDIAN.
FINALLY : IT'S OBVIOUS THAT U CAN'T GIVE UP ALL OF THE ITEMS MENTIONED ABOVE,
SO GIVE UP ATLEAST ONE ITEM FOR THE SAKE OF OUR COUNTRY. LITTLE DROPS MAKE A GREAT OCEAN .
Courtesy:- Vishnu Shanbhag
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LOT OF SPECULATION CAN SEE IN THIS WEEK ALSO
CAUTION ADVICED TO SHORT TERM TRADERS
SENSEX TRADING BAND 17000 -19300
NIFTY TRADING BAND 5600 -5800
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR LOOKING GOOD WHICH FALLEN LESS IN THIS MARKET FALL, CAN OUT PERFROM IN COMING SESSIONS AS WELL AS COMING MONTHS
YOU CAN CONCENTRATE PREVIOUS PICKS WHICH ARE AVAILABLE @ GOOD ENTRY LEVELS
CMP TARGET
JAYANT AGRO ORGANICS : 75 130
CUBEX TUBINGS : 67 115
RADICO KHAITAN : 120 180 (KEEP WATCH LIQUOR STOCKS OUT PERFROM IN
MONTHS)
INTENSE TECHNOLIGES : 68 120 (BSE CODE NO:532326 ) FORTUNEINF CODE IN PIB
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SENTIMENT LOOKING WEAK
CUT ON INTEREST RATES CAN IMPACT ON MARKETS
SENSEX TRADING RANGE : 18400 - 19800
NIFTY TRADING RANGE : 5600 - 5890
F & O PICKS :- CMP TARGET
INFOSYS : 1468 1650
TATA STEEL : 785 950
EQUITY PICKS:-
ZEN TECHNOLIGIES : 140 200 (RAKESH JHUNWALA ALREADY TAKEN STAKE)
PRATIBHA INDS : 400 600
OMNITECH INFO : 220 350
DISCLAIMER : WE OUR GROUP ALREADY HOLDING IN THE ABOVE STOCKS AND WE MAY TRADE IN THIS WEEK ALSO
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Date:11/01/2008 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2008/01/11/stories/2008011150150500.htm Back Ecoboard chalks out roadmap for 3 years
Posts Rs 45 cr turnover; aims at Rs 100 cr by 2010
Our Bureau
Pune, Jan. 10
Ecoboard Industries, manufacturer of particle board from agro waste, has chalked out its roadmap for the next three years. The company has also become debt free, Mr V.S. Raju, Chairman and Managing Director, said here on Thursday.
Talking to presspersons, he said the company has posted a turnover of Rs 45 crore last year, and is targeting turnover of Rs 60 crore for the current year. He said it would be registering a 30 per cent increase.
Commenting on the fact that Ecoboard had not been in the limelight since 1999, Mr Raju said the company had faced certain financial problems during the period. During the past three years, it had entered into negotiated settlements of its term liabilities with financial institutions and banks that included interest and partial principal waivers to the tune of Rs 37.8 crore. The company, he said, had cleared all its debts by March 2007. He added that now the company was focussing on developing its markets and touch a turnover of Rs 100 crore by 2010.
Capacity utilisation
Asked how the company was going to achieve these targets, Mr Raju pointed out that its two facilities, Islampur and Pandharpur, both in Maharashtra, has been utilising only 45 per cent of its capacity. Both the facilities put together have a capacity of 51 lakh sq mt. During 2006, it had manufactured only 23 lakh sq mt of particle board, and during 2007, the target was 30 lakh sq mt.
“When the capacities are utilised fully, we should be able to reach the target. After three years, the facilities would be expanded,” he said.
Mr Raju said it was planning to improve the logistics and distribution system by setting up nodal service centres at strategic locations in the country. It would be a swift delivery module (three-day delivery) by maintaining stock of finished boards at these centres.
© Copyright 2000 - 2008 The Hindu Business Line
SOURCE : BUSINESS LINE
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INFOSYS RESULTS ARE GOOD , TRY TO ACCUMLATE IT STOCKS ON LOWER LEVELS
F & O PICKS:- CMP TARGET
RELIANCE INDS : - 3130 3400
DLF : - 1195 1350
IDEA CELLULAR : - 134 160
EQUITY CALLS: -
HINDUSTAN
DORROLIVER : - 176 300
JAYANT AGRO
ORGANICS : - 111 200
VIDEOCON INDS : - 630 1000
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MARKTS CAN OPEN GAP DOWN ON ACCOUNT OF GLOBAL WEAK NESS IN DOWZONES , NASDAQ
INFOSYS RESULTS IS ON 11TH i.e., WEEKEND SO, PLAY ACCORDINGLY
SENSEX SUPPORT LEVELS :20280 - 19940
NIFTY SUPPORT LEVELS :6120 -5980
SENSEX TRADING RANGE :20000 - 21400
NIFTY TRADING RANGE: 6000 - 6480
F & O PICKS:- CMP TARGETS
GTL : 305 TGT : 350
GBN : 1210 TGT :1500
PRAJINDS : 260 TGT: 325
CASH PICKS:
POKARNA : 188 TGT:350
KCPLTD : 775 TGT:1500
ANDHRA
SUGARS : 145 TGT:250
DISCLOSURE: - WE ARE ALREADY HOLDING IN ABOVE STOCKS AND WE MAY TRADE IN THIS WEEK
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FIRDAUSLALKAKA FROM AHMEDABAD IS OF VIEW THAT THIS WILL CROSS 350 IN 2 TO 3 MONTHS HAVE A LOOK IN TO CHART WHICH SAYS THE SAME THING
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